مصدر مصرفي: ارتفاع الدولار طبيعي في ظل الحرب الإيرانية.. وحدوث «انفلات» في تسعيره مستبعد
إيمى عمرو
ارتفاعات الدولار ستمنع تكرار الأزمات السابقة ولا خوف من زيادات قياسية في أسعاره
قال مصدر مصرفي، إن ارتفاعات أسعار صرف الدولار مقابل الجنيه من الطبيعي أن تحدث مع ارتفاع وتيرة تخارجات المستثمرين الأجانب من أدوات الدين المحلية في ظل الحرب الدائرة في إيران، مستبعدًا حدوث انفلات في تسعير الدولار خلال الفترة القادمة.
وشهدت أسعار الدولار مقابل الجنيه، ارتفاعات بأكثر من 10%، عقب اندلاع التوترات الجيوسياسية بالمنطقة، منذ مطلع الأسبوع الماضي وحتى تعاملات أمس، محققًا أعلى مستوياته على الإطلاق عند 52.82 جنيه للبيع بالبنك المركزي المصري.
وأوضح المصدر المصرفي ، أن سوق أدوات الدين الحكومية يشهد، منذ اندلاع التوترات الجيوسياسية بالمنطقة، تخارجات من قبل المستثمرين الأجانب، ودخول استثمارات جديدة لكنها ليست بنفس معدل التخارج.
وسحب المستثمرون الأجانب مبيعاتهم في أدوات الدين المحلية بختام تعاملات أمس الأول الأحد بالسوق الثانوي، بقيمة 10.6 مليار جنيه بما يعادل نحو 203 ملايين دولار؛ بعدما حققوا مبيعات بقيمة 102 مليون جنيه بما يعادل 2.5 مليار دولار خلال الأسبوع الماضي.
كان المستثمرون الأجانب كثفوا استثماراتهم في أدوات الدين المحلية خلال السنوات الماضية، بفضل ارتفاع العائد الحقيقي، إلا أن ضغوط التوترات الجيوسياسية في المنطقة دفعتهم إلى التخارج من الأسواق الناشئة والتوجه إلى الملاذات الآمنة.
وتابع المصدر، إن خروج الأجانب لابد أن يحدث عند سعر صرف مرتفع للدولار مقابل الجنيه حتى لا يحققوا مكاسب من قوة العملة المحلية عند التخارج”، مشيرًا إلى أنه في حالة تثبيت سعر الصرف سيكون تكرارا للأزمات السابقة.
وتعرضت مصر لأزمة نقص عملة صعبة عقب تخارجات بقيمة 45 مليار دولار من أذون وسندات الخزانة أثناء الحرب الأوكرانية الروسية ما سبب أزمة نقص حادة في العملة الصعبة، قبل أن يعلن البنك المركزي تحرير سعر الصرف في مارس 2024 والقضاء على السوق السوداء.
وتوقع المصدر، أن تستمر تحركات أسعار صرف الدولار مقابل الجنيه وفقًا لآليات العرض والطلب، مستبعدًا حدوث انخفاضات كبيرة في سعر الصرف.
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